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Highest temperature in Manila on June 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on June 1?

Volume:
$28,792

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$894
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$803
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and reflect collective expectations, while analyst forecasts typically come from meteorological models and expert analysis. For Manila's June 1 high temperature, market prices may diverge from traditional weather forecasts depending on how quickly new data is incorporated and how confident traders are in their positions. Comparing Polymarket odds to published forecasts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official predictions.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the highest temperature in Manila on June 1 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data for that day, establishing which outcome contract holders predicted correctly. Resolution depends on accurate measurement and reporting from reliable meteorological sources. Once the final high temperature is confirmed, the market settles and winning positions are paid out accordingly.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 1. Updated seasonal weather patterns and monsoon forecasts from meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations. Real-time atmospheric data, ocean temperature anomalies, and tropical system activity in the region can trigger repricing. Historical temperature trends for early June in Manila provide a baseline, but any unusual weather systems developing in late May could prompt significant market movement. Traders continuously incorporate new climate data to adjust their positions on expected high temperatures.