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Highest temperature in Manila on July 10?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Manila on July 10?

Volume:
$625,695

73° to 74°

 - Kalshi

73° to 74° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

73° to 74°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$164,677
N/A
N/A
$57,990
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

77° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$214,859
N/A
N/A
$121,199
Settled
No
kalshi

75° to 76°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$124,255
N/A
N/A
$57,238
Settled
No
kalshi

71° to 72°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,680
N/A
N/A
$49,339
Settled
No
kalshi

69° to 70°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,218
N/A
N/A
$27,796
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,827
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,981
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

68° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,911
N/A
N/A
$4,911
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,990
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$744
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks for the highest temperature recorded in Manila on July 10, 2026. Kalshi's market references Los Angeles Airport temperature on July 7, 2026, while Polymarket references Manila's temperature on July 10, 2026 at Ninoy Aquino International Airport. The markets are fundamentally misaligned in both geography and date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references Los Angeles Airport on July 7, 2026, while Polymarket references Manila on July 10, 2026. These are different geographic locations and different dates. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic contains a structural defect: all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market logically incoherent.Hero tip: Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. Kalshi's market structure suggests a potential drafting error—verify directly with the platform before committing capital. Polymarket's market is resolvable and clear; Kalshi's is not.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on Los Angeles Airport, CA highest temperature for July 07, 2026 per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Critical flaw: all six conditions (less than 69°, 69-70°, 71-72°, 73-74°, 75-76°, greater than 76°) resolve to Yes, covering all possible temperatures. This makes the market non-functional.
  • Polymarket: Resolves on Manila (Ninoy Aquino International Airport) highest temperature for July 10, 2026 per Wunderground historical data in whole degrees Celsius. Offers granular buckets: 25°C or below, 26°C, 27°C, 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, 34°C, 35°C or higher. Key quote: 'The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, California on July 7, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature reading is divided into six distinct ranges: 68°F or below, 69–70°F, 71–72°F, 73–74°F, 75–76°F, and 77°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the official NWS temperature falls within that bracket. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather should not be used as final determinants. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline readings.