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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 9?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 9?

Volume:
$83,414

33°C

 - Polymarket

33°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 9, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

33°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders betting on Madrid's June 9 temperature, while traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorological models and seasonal climate data. Markets often incorporate late-breaking weather patterns and atmospheric conditions faster than published forecasts. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official weather services predict. This divergence can highlight emerging consensus about heat waves, pressure systems, or seasonal anomalies affecting the Iberian Peninsula.

The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 9 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official meteorological data from recognized weather authorities monitoring Madrid's temperature throughout that day. The outcome is determined by the peak temperature reading captured during the resolution window, which settles all outstanding positions in the market based on whether the actual temperature matches the predicted threshold.

Major weather pattern shifts, including high-pressure systems moving into the Iberian Peninsula or Atlantic storm activity, could significantly move odds. Seasonal climate anomalies, El Niño or La Niña effects, and real-time meteorological forecasts from European weather services will influence trader expectations. Heat wave alerts issued by Spanish authorities, changes in atmospheric circulation, and updated long-range models closer to June 9 may trigger sharp repricing. Urban heat island effects and local pollution data could also impact final temperature predictions as traders refine their positions.