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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 6?

Volume:
$83,433

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 6, 2026

Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$577
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts and analyst models. While weather services issue deterministic or probabilistic temperature predictions based on atmospheric models, prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs and financial incentives into implied probabilities. Comparing Polymarket odds to published forecasts from Spain's national weather agency or international meteorological centers can reveal where the market is pricing in tail risks, model uncertainty, or recent climate patterns that analysts may weight differently. This gap often highlights valuable information for informed decision-making.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Madrid on June 6 is priced through binary or categorical outcome contracts, where each temperature range or specific threshold trades as a separate share. Traders buy and sell these shares at prices between 0 and 1 (or 0–100 cents), with the price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges—seasonal forecasts, climate data, or real-time weather patterns—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The market-clearing price at any moment represents the marginal trader's belief about the likelihood of each temperature outcome.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 6, 2026, has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on identifying the official peak temperature for that calendar day in Madrid. The specific data source and measurement methodology are defined in the market's terms at creation. Once the event occurs and the temperature is confirmed, the outcome is determined and all shares are settled according to which temperature bracket or threshold was reached. Traders should review the market's resolution criteria before trading to understand how the winning outcome will be officially determined.

Several factors could shift odds for Madrid's peak temperature on June 6. Seasonal climate patterns and long-range weather forecasts released closer to the date will influence trader expectations. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual atmospheric conditions affecting southern Europe could trigger repricing. El Niño or La Niña cycles and broader climate anomalies may alter baseline temperature expectations. Real-time weather model updates in the days leading up to June 6 will likely drive significant volume and price movement. Additionally, any major volcanic activity or solar events affecting global temperatures could indirectly influence Madrid's forecast. Monitor meteorological updates and European weather services for catalysts.