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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 5?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 5?

Volume:
$111,587

29°C

 - Polymarket

29°C - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 6, 2026

Closed: Jun 5, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

29°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,282
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,272
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,093
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate data, and seasonal patterns for Madrid in early June. Unlike static analyst predictions, market prices adjust dynamically as new weather models and forecasts are released. Comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to published forecasts from meteorological agencies or climate analysts can reveal where traders are pricing in additional uncertainty or confidence. Market odds tend to aggregate dispersed information faster than traditional forecasts update, making them a useful cross-check for temperature expectations.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Madrid on June 5 is priced through outcome shares that reflect trader estimates of each temperature bracket or specific value. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares in outcomes they believe will occur, and the price of each share (typically 0–1 USD) represents the market's implied probability. As new weather data emerges or conditions shift, prices adjust in real time. The outcome with the highest share price reflects the market's leading expectation for that day's peak temperature in Madrid.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 5, 2026, has been recorded and finalized. Resolution is determined by the official temperature reading from a designated meteorological source for Madrid on that date. The outcome corresponding to the actual peak temperature recorded will be marked correct, and traders holding shares in that outcome receive their payout. All other outcomes resolve to zero value.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems affecting southern Europe can significantly move odds for Madrid's peak temperature on June 5. Release of new meteorological models, heat waves or cold fronts predicted to reach the region, and historical temperature anomalies for that date will influence trader positioning. Urban heat island effects and local air quality events may also factor into market repricing. As June 5 approaches, real-time weather updates and short-range forecasts typically drive the most volatile price movements.