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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 3?

Volume:
$113,144

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 3, 2026

Closed: Jun 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,530
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature recorded in Madrid on June 3 on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of each temperature outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $86,961, and historical price movements. Users can monitor how market participants are pricing different temperature ranges as the event date approaches, giving insight into crowd expectations for Madrid's peak temperature on that specific day.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while meteorological forecasts from agencies like AEMET (Spain's national weather service) provide scientific models based on atmospheric data. Markets often incorporate analyst predictions but may diverge based on trader sentiment and historical temperature patterns. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic outcomes than official weather models suggest for Madrid's June 3 high temperature.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Madrid on June 3 is priced through outcome shares that traders buy and sell based on their belief in each temperature range. Each share represents a claim on that outcome, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. As traders adjust positions ahead of Jun 3, 2026, prices shift to reflect new information, seasonal patterns, and expected weather conditions for early June in Madrid.

Weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems over the Iberian Peninsula can significantly move odds. Heat waves or cold fronts predicted to arrive in early June will influence trader positioning. Updated meteorological models from AEMET and European weather services may trigger repricing as the event date nears. Historical temperature records for Madrid in early June and real-time climate data also serve as reference points that traders monitor to adjust their positions.