Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating meteorological data, seasonal patterns, and historical precedent faster than traditional forecasts update. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and satellite imagery, this market aggregates dispersed information through price discovery. Comparing the current odds here to published forecasts from national weather services or climate analysts can reveal where traders see value or disagreement. Markets typically price in uncertainty more explicitly than point forecasts, making them useful for understanding the full range of plausible outcomes.

This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once June 26 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Madrid that day is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources reporting the official temperature data. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new weather forecasts, seasonal updates, or other relevant signals emerge. Resolution is binary—the actual high temperature will either match one of the defined outcomes or fall into another bracket, settling all positions accordingly.

Weather model updates from European meteorological agencies are the primary driver of price movement in this market. Seasonal anomalies, ocean temperature patterns, and atmospheric pressure systems over the Atlantic can shift trader expectations weeks in advance. As June 26 approaches, real-time forecasts become more precise, typically causing sharper repricing. Major climate events, volcanic activity, or unexpected heat waves in neighboring regions may also influence how traders assess Madrid's temperature that day. Early-morning forecasts on June 26 itself often trigger final volatility before settlement.