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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 14?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 14?

Volume:
$96,510

35°C

 - Polymarket

35°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,846
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Madrid temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature expected in Madrid on June 14. The interface displays current trader positions, 24-hour volume activity, and outcome probabilities as they shift with new information and market participation. This live data helps traders monitor consensus expectations and identify potential trading opportunities as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they aggregate diverse trader beliefs and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. While meteorological models from national weather services provide deterministic temperature ranges, this market reflects the collective judgment of participants betting real capital on the outcome. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in factors analysts may underweight, such as unusual atmospheric patterns or recent climate trends affecting the region.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares representing different temperature ranges for Madrid on June 14. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker mechanism where share prices reflect the probability assigned by the collective trading activity. As new information emerges—updated forecasts, seasonal patterns, or real-time weather developments—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to fluctuate and continuously repricing the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Madrid on that date becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official meteorological data, typically from Spain's national weather service or internationally recognized climate monitoring stations. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and the final temperature reading is confirmed, at which point payouts are distributed to traders who correctly predicted the outcome.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies can significantly move this market. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unexpected pressure systems affecting southern Europe may prompt traders to reassess temperature expectations. Additionally, historical climate data releases, changes in solar activity forecasts, or unusual urban heat island effects in Madrid could influence trader sentiment. As June 14 approaches, real-time weather model updates and short-term forecasts will likely drive the most volatile price movements.