Highest temperature in Madrid on June 13?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Madrid on June 13 is priced through binary or range-based outcome contracts that traders buy and sell to express their beliefs. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the probability traders assign to that temperature bracket occurring, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-unity. Liquidity and trading volume concentrate around the most likely temperature ranges, while extreme outcomes trade at lower volumes. Prices adjust continuously as new weather models, seasonal data, and real-time atmospheric conditions become available, allowing traders to enter or exit positions right up to market resolution.

The market resolves on Jun 13, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 13, 2026 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by the official maximum temperature reading for that calendar day in Madrid. Resolution depends on obtaining accurate, authoritative temperature data from recognized meteorological sources for the specified location and date. Once the final high temperature is confirmed, the market settles to the corresponding outcome and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems over the Iberian Peninsula could significantly move odds. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual jet stream positioning in early June would trigger repricing. Real-time weather model runs—especially from European meteorological centers—often cause sharp market moves as they refine predictions days or weeks ahead. Urban heat island effects, cloud cover anomalies, and historical temperature records for that date also influence trader positioning. As June 13 approaches, daily forecast updates and actual early-June temperatures in Madrid will drive continuous market adjustments.