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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 12?

Volume:
$92,221

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while meteorological forecasts from weather services like AEMET or Météo-France rely on atmospheric modeling and historical climate data. Markets often incorporate analyst predictions but may diverge based on trader sentiment, recent weather patterns, and seasonal expectations. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official forecasters, offering insight into market-implied confidence versus institutional expertise.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Madrid on June 12 is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into probability estimates for each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges, with prices reflecting the collective belief about which outcome is most likely. The platform's continuous pricing mechanism allows real-time discovery of market odds as new information emerges and trading volume fluctuates leading up to the June 12 resolution date.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 12, 2026 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from recognized meteorological sources monitoring Madrid's weather on that specific date. The outcome is objective and verifiable, based on the actual peak temperature reached during the 24-hour period, ensuring all traders are betting on the same measurable event.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal anomalies, and climate forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly influence trading odds. Heat waves, atmospheric blocking patterns, or unusual jet stream behavior in early June could signal higher temperatures and shift market prices upward. Conversely, cooler-than-normal weather systems or increased cloud cover might lower expectations. Real-time weather updates, long-range forecasts, and historical temperature comparisons for early June will drive trader positioning and volatility in the weeks leading to resolution.