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Highest temperature in Madrid on June 10?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 10?

Volume:
$113,614

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 10, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,850
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,062
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Madrid's June 10 temperature, while analyst forecasts typically come from meteorological models and seasonal climate data. Markets often incorporate broader information faster than traditional forecasts, but both sources can diverge based on recent weather patterns, climate anomalies, or model updates. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official weather services predict for that date.

The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the highest temperature in Madrid on June 10 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from recognized meteorological authorities or weather stations in Madrid. Resolution occurs once the final peak temperature reading is confirmed, settling all open positions based on whether the actual temperature matched the predicted threshold or outcome specified in the market contract.

Key signals include updated seasonal weather forecasts, atmospheric pressure patterns, ocean temperature anomalies, and historical climate trends for early June in Madrid. Major weather events such as heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual jet stream positioning could shift trader expectations significantly. Real-time meteorological model updates, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and solar activity may also influence market pricing. As June 10 approaches, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically causing sharper price movements as uncertainty narrows.