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Highest temperature in Madrid on July 9?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Madrid on July 9?

Volume:
$253,112

92° to 93°

 - Kalshi

92° to 93° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

92° to 93°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,677
N/A
N/A
$23,827
Settled
Yes
polymarket

38°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

90° to 91°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,819
N/A
N/A
$32,626
Settled
No
kalshi

88° to 89°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41,034
N/A
N/A
$34,970
Settled
No
kalshi

94° to 95°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,041
N/A
N/A
$10,181
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

96° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,205
N/A
N/A
$7,961
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

87° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,012
N/A
N/A
$4,254
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

43°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

44°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the highest temperature recorded in Madrid on July 9, 2026. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they reference different geographic locations and use different measurement standards, creating a critical resolution mismatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market references Miami International Airport on July 07, 2026 instead of Madrid on July 9, 2026. More critically, Kalshi's resolution logic is a logical tautology—all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket correctly specifies Madrid's Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on July 9, 2026 with coherent temperature buckets.Hero tip: Kalshi's market contains two critical failures: wrong location and logically impossible resolution criteria. Do not trade Kalshi. Polymarket is the only viable market for this event. Verify Kalshi's status with the platform before any trading activity.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References Miami International Airport for July 07, 2026 (not Madrid, not July 9). All six conditions (below 88°, 88-89°, 90-91°, 92-93°, 94-95°, above 95°) resolve to Yes. This creates a logical tautology where every possible temperature outcome resolves Yes, rendering the market unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Correctly specifies Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in Madrid on July 9, 2026. Uses Wunderground as resolution source, measures to whole degrees Celsius, and provides coherent temperature buckets: 35°C or below, 36°C through 44°C (individual), and 45°C or higher.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on July 7, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature reading is divided into six distinct ranges: 87°F or below, 88–89°F, 90–91°F, 92–93°F, 94–95°F, and 96°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the official NWS temperature falls within that bracket. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather should not be used as final determinants. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline readings.

Frequently asked questions

The Madrid temperature market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on the highest temperature expected in Madrid on July 9. This market pools liquidity and consensus from both platforms, enabling you to compare how different trading communities price the same weather outcome. Current combined volume stands at $253,112, with $195,171 traded in the last 24 hours. By tracking the Madrid temperature market across venues, you gain insight into where professional and retail traders believe the day's peak will land.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, model uncertainty, and tail-risk pricing. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, market participants express their beliefs through odds that reflect both expected value and the cost of being wrong. This market's pricing may run ahead of or lag behind official forecasts depending on whether traders believe consensus models underestimate or overestimate July heat in Madrid. Comparing the two reveals how much markets price in factors analysts might downweight.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds on the same outcome due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-book structure can produce tighter spreads in liquid pairs, while Polymarket's automated market maker model may reflect different fee structures and trader composition. Additionally, each platform's historical user base brings distinct risk preferences and information sets. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand which market segment is pricing the event more conservatively.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated climate models, or unexpected atmospheric systems could significantly reprrice this market before July 9. Heat waves, cold fronts, or changes in high-pressure systems over the Iberian Peninsula would trigger trader repositioning. Additionally, revisions to seasonal forecasts or anomalies in European weather patterns may prompt rapid repricing. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to July 9 will narrow uncertainty and tighten spreads. Monitor meteorological alerts and model consensus updates for the strongest catalysts.