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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 26?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 26?

Volume:
$666,789

72° to 73°

 - Kalshi

72° to 73° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

72° to 73°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$65,160
N/A
N/A
$27,407
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-71°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

76° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$320,966
N/A
N/A
$318,697
Settled
No
kalshi

74° to 75°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88,264
N/A
N/A
$45,995
Settled
No
kalshi

70° to 71°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73,558
N/A
N/A
$48,897
Settled
No
kalshi

68° to 69°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,761
N/A
N/A
$26,730
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

67° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,188
N/A
N/A
$6,870
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,864
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

61°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Los Angeles on June 26, 2026, measured at Los Angeles International Airport. Both platforms offer granular temperature range markets to capture the exact high temperature for that day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi specifies June 25, 2026 while Polymarket specifies June 26, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where all temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary outcome.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi's market until the date discrepancy and logical contradiction are resolved. Polymarket's market is properly structured with mutually exclusive temperature ranges and a clear resolution source (Wunderground). If forced to choose, Polymarket is the only resolvable market in this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References June 25, 2026 (not June 26). Resolution logic states that temperatures below 68°, between 68-69°, 70-71°, 72-73°, 74-75°, and above 75° all resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible temperature outcome resolves Yes. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily), but no URL provided.
  • Polymarket: References June 26, 2026 with mutually exclusive temperature ranges (61 or below, 62-63°, 64-65°, 66-67°, 68-69°, 70-71°, 72-73°, 74-75°, 76-77°, 78-79°, 80+). Source: Wunderground historical data at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, California on June 25, 2026, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is divided into six distinct ranges: 67°F or below, 68–69°F, 70–71°F, 72–73°F, 74–75°F, and 76°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and alternative weather sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding, conversion nuances, or measurement methodology variations and should not be used as the basis for trading decisions.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, traders here are wagering capital on discrete temperature bands. This market's odds reflect aggregate belief weighted by participant conviction, not model output. Comparing the current odds to National Weather Service or other institutional forecasts can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in tail risks, model uncertainty, or recent data shifts that analysts may not yet have fully incorporated.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or atmospheric anomalies can trigger significant repricing. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual pressure systems affecting Southern California will shift trader expectations and move odds. Real-time weather alerts, model consensus changes, and historical temperature comparisons for the same date also influence sentiment. As June 26 approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing uncertainty and concentrating volume around the most likely outcome. Breaking news about climate events or air quality alerts may also sway short-term positioning.