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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 14?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 14?

Volume:
$610,915

72° to 73°

 - Kalshi

72° to 73° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

72° to 73°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$61,802
N/A
N/A
$31,284
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-71°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

80° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$217,906
N/A
N/A
$189,647
Settled
No
kalshi

74° to 75°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$74,393
N/A
N/A
$40,756
Settled
No
kalshi

71° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$74,049
N/A
N/A
$36,932
Settled
No
polymarket

61°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,437
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,775
N/A
N/A
$29,391
Settled
No
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,702
N/A
N/A
$20,171
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

These markets ask what the highest temperature will be in Los Angeles on June 14, 2026, measured at Los Angeles International Airport. Kalshi references June 13, 2026 (apparent date error), while Polymarket correctly specifies June 14, 2026. Both use official weather data sources but differ in date, source platform, and temperature range bucketing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references June 13, 2026 while Polymarket and the event title specify June 14, 2026. Additionally, two different authoritative weather sources are cited (NWS Climatological Report vs Wunderground), creating potential data integrity and date specification failures.Hero tip: This divergence makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and introduces unresolvable ambiguity. Confirm the correct event date with both platforms before trading. If Kalshi's date is a typo, request clarification. If intentional, these are separate events and should not be grouped together.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions reference June 13, 2026 (not June 14) and resolve to Yes for any temperature outcome (less than 72°, 72-73°, 74-75°, 76-77°, 78-79°, or greater than 79°). Uses National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) as authoritative source. Quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles Airport, CA for June 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily)...'
  • Polymarket: Thirteen binary markets covering June 14, 2026 (correct date per event title) with temperature ranges from 61°F or below through 80°F or higher. Uses Wunderground historical data for LAX station, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, California on June 13, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is divided into six ranges: 71°F or below, 72–73°F, 74–75°F, 76–77°F, 78–79°F, and 80°F or above. Each range corresponds to a specific market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that bracket. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations and should not be used as the final reference.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices represent crowdsourced expectations from traders risking real capital, whereas analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and expert judgment. Markets often incorporate late-breaking data and shift rapidly as new information emerges, while traditional forecasts update on fixed schedules. For temperature events, this market typically converges toward National Weather Service guidance as the event date approaches, though trader sentiment can diverge if consensus models conflict or if participants spot model bias. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in tail risks or anchoring to consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi use distinct contract structures and attract different trader demographics, leading to price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket may weight near-term weather updates more heavily due to its user base, while Kalshi's design could favor longer-dated positioning. Liquidity depth also varies—lower volume on one platform can widen bid-ask spreads and create arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and settlement rules subtly influence how traders price tail outcomes, so comparing both gives a fuller picture of market conviction.

Updated weather models, atmospheric pressure systems, and seasonal anomalies are primary drivers. A shift in the jet stream or unexpected high-pressure ridge could push temperatures sharply higher, triggering rapid repricing. Real-time satellite and radar data released by meteorological agencies often move odds in the final 48 hours. Urban heat island effects, cloud cover forecasts, and even wildfire smoke patterns can influence intraday temperature swings. Major weather alerts or heat advisories issued by authorities typically accelerate trading activity and tighten spreads as resolution approaches.