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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 2?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 2?

Volume:
$501,375

71° to 72°

 - Kalshi

71° to 72° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

71° to 72°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$82,588
N/A
N/A
$33,527
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72-73°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

73° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146,666
N/A
N/A
$84,024
Settled
No
kalshi

69° to 70°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104,588
N/A
N/A
$50,314
Settled
No
kalshi

67° to 68°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$71,017
N/A
N/A
$34,597
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,527
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

65° to 66°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,301
N/A
N/A
$10,699
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

64° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,504
N/A
N/A
$4,574
Settled
No
polymarket

61°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Los Angeles on July 2, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both aim to resolve based on official temperature data from Los Angeles International Airport, but they differ significantly in date reference, resolution source, and temperature range bucketing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references July 01, 2026 instead of July 2, 2026, creating a date mismatch that makes the market unresolvable for the stated event. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution rules do not explicitly cover all temperature ranges (notably 65-66°F is mentioned in rule 6 but the overall logic is incomplete). Polymarket correctly targets July 2, 2026 but uses Wunderground instead of National Weather Service as the source.Hero tip: Kalshi's market appears to have a critical date error. Before trading, confirm with Kalshi whether the market should resolve on July 1 or July 2. Polymarket's market is logically sound and resolvable, but traders should note that Wunderground data may be revised until the first datapoint of July 3 is published. Use Polymarket as the primary reference for this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for July 01, 2026 (not July 2). All six rules resolve to Yes across different temperature ranges, but the date is off by one day. Quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles Airport, CA for July 01, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily)...'
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Wunderground historical data for July 2, 2026 at Los Angeles International Airport Station (KLAX). Offers 13 granular temperature bucket questions (e.g., 61°F or below, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, etc.) covering the full range. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, California on July 1, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is divided into six ranges: below 65°, 65-66°, 67-68°, 69-70°, 71-72°, and above 72°. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services are not used for final determination. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could differ from the final official value.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, risk appetite, and information asymmetries. While meteorologists issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, market prices reflect what participants are willing to stake money on. This market's odds may run ahead of or lag behind official forecasts depending on whether traders believe consensus models are underpricing tail risks or overconfident in their precision. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd sees something analysts have missed or if conventional forecasts already price in known uncertainty.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, uses distinct contract designs, and may settle outcomes using slightly different data sources or timing windows. Polymarket structures its contracts around binary thresholds, while Kalshi offers granular temperature bands, creating different incentive structures for how traders express their views. Liquidity concentration also varies—one platform may have deeper order books for certain outcomes, pushing prices apart. Additionally, platform-specific fees, user interfaces, and promotional activity can shift where informed traders choose to deploy capital, causing temporary or persistent price divergence on the same underlying event.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or sudden atmospheric anomalies can significantly reprrice this market. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual pressure systems affecting Southern California will trigger trader repositioning as new meteorological data becomes available. Long-range model updates from the National Weather Service or other forecasters often spark volatility when they shift expected temperature ranges. Additionally, historical temperature records for July 2 and real-time atmospheric conditions in the days leading up to the event will draw trader attention. Late-stage price movements typically reflect the most recent weather observations and short-term model consensus.