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Highest temperature in London on July 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in London on July 6?

Volume:
$171,458

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,371
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,492
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous updating by traders rather than static model outputs. While meteorologists issue point forecasts or confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the distributed knowledge of participants who profit from accuracy. Comparing the current odds to published forecasts from the UK Met Office or other agencies can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk—for instance, if traders are pricing a higher chance of extreme heat than official models suggest, it may signal emerging consensus about model bias or newly available data.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in London on July 6 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed against official meteorological records, ensuring all traders are judged against the same factual standard. Until that date, prices may fluctuate as forecasts update and traders reassess their positions based on emerging weather patterns and atmospheric conditions.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major weather model updates—especially from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or the UK Met Office—often trigger repricing when they show stronger or weaker heat signals. Seasonal climate patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or jet stream positioning, can influence July temperatures weeks in advance. Real-time atmospheric developments, heat waves in nearby regions, or anomalous pressure systems will also drive trader conviction. As July 6 approaches, intraday forecasts and actual early-July weather will become the dominant price drivers.