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Highest temperature in London on July 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in London on July 12?

Volume:
$133,903

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,862
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$961
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The London temperature record market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature expected in London on July 12. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature outcomes, and the dashboard displays current prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume to help you monitor market sentiment. This live data reflects collective predictions from participants wagering on whether the day will be exceptionally warm, moderate, or cool compared to historical norms for that date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, media attention, and broader uncertainty. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data to estimate temperature ranges, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants with financial stakes in the outcome. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders are pricing in more extreme heat or cooler conditions than official forecasts suggest, offering a complementary view of what may happen on July 12.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on the volume and direction of trades. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature outcome is represented as a separate contract, and the price of each reflects the collective probability assigned by traders. As more participants buy or sell shares for a given temperature range, the price moves to balance supply and demand, creating a dynamic price discovery mechanism that updates continuously throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in London on July 12 is confirmed and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual meteorological data reported for that specific date, which settles the competing temperature predictions. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout based on the final verified temperature reading.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or significant atmospheric anomalies could shift trader sentiment and move prices substantially. Breaking news about heat waves, jet stream changes, or climate events affecting northern Europe may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Additionally, as July 12 approaches, real-time weather models become more precise, and traders often adjust bets based on the latest meteorological data. Social media discussion or media coverage of extreme weather predictions can also influence trading activity and market odds.