TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the peak daily temperature in Kuala Lumpur will reach 34°C on May 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the 34°C outcome is trading at 35.5%, while the 33°C outcome is at 28.0%. Resolution will be determined by the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport Station according to Weather Underground's historical data. Watch the weather patterns and atmospheric conditions leading up to May 30, 2026, as tropical monsoon activity and local heat dynamics in that period will be critical to final settlement.
Prediction market odds reflect real-time trader consensus and differ from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical climate data, prediction markets aggregate financial incentives—traders profit only if their temperature prediction proves correct. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that can diverge from official forecasts, especially as new data emerges. Comparing Polymarket odds to published meteorological outlooks for Kuala Lumpur in late May reveals how market participants weigh extreme heat scenarios differently than conventional models, offering an alternative perspective on temperature probability.
The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on May 30 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on the official temperature data for that day, which determines whether binary outcomes are met. Traders should monitor the specified data source as the event date approaches to understand how the final settlement will be determined. The exact resolution criteria and data provider are detailed in the market's terms, ensuring transparent and objective outcome determination based on actual meteorological measurements from Kuala Lumpur.
Several factors could shift odds for Kuala Lumpur's May 30 high temperature. Seasonal weather pattern updates, monsoon forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems developing over Southeast Asia will influence trader positioning. El Niño or La Niña conditions, ocean temperature anomalies, and regional climate indices published closer to May could trigger repricing. Real-time weather model runs and official meteorological advisories will be closely watched. Additionally, any unusual heat events or climate anomalies in the weeks before May 30 may prompt traders to adjust their probability estimates, creating trading opportunities as new information becomes available.