TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 28, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Kuala Lumpur will reach 34°C on May 28, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 100.0%, with the alternative outcome of 32°C at 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground, specifically the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport Station. Watch for the actual temperature reading on May 28, 2026, when Weather Underground publishes the daily high for that date.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical climate data, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, trader conviction, and financial incentives. Comparing Polymarket odds to official forecasts from meteorological agencies or climate analysts can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios. Such comparisons help identify whether market participants expect conditions to deviate from baseline seasonal patterns for Kuala Lumpur in late May.
The market resolves on May 28, 2026, after the highest temperature for May 28 in Kuala Lumpur has been recorded. Resolution is determined by verified temperature data from official meteorological sources for that specific date and location. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the outcome is finalized and winning positions are settled automatically. Traders should monitor official weather records and any announcements from Polymarket regarding data sources and timing to ensure clarity on how the final temperature will be measured and confirmed.
Several factors could shift market odds before May 28, 2026. Seasonal weather patterns and monsoon activity in Southeast Asia are primary drivers; any updates to long-range forecasts indicating unusual heat or cooler conditions would move prices. Real-time meteorological alerts, changes in atmospheric pressure systems, or unexpected climate anomalies closer to May 28 could trigger significant repricing. Additionally, as the event date approaches, traders incorporate more recent and precise weather models, which may confirm or contradict earlier market expectations. Historical temperature records for late May in Kuala Lumpur also serve as reference points that influence trader positioning.