TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Highest temperature in Karachi on July 5?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Karachi on July 5?

Volume:
$61,828

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Polymarket dashboard for the Karachi temperature market displays real-time odds on the highest temperature recorded in Karachi on July 5. Traders can view current price levels across multiple outcome brackets, historical price movement, and trading volume to understand how the market is pricing different temperature scenarios. The interface shows which temperature ranges are attracting the most interest and capital, helping participants gauge consensus expectations for peak heat on that specific day.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and broader uncertainty. While weather analysts publish deterministic point estimates or narrow ranges based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders betting real capital on outcomes. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to published forecasts for Karachi's July 5 high can reveal whether traders expect conditions to exceed or fall short of official predictions, reflecting either skepticism or confidence in the models.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares tied to specific temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket has its own price, ranging from 0 to 1, and the cost to buy a share reflects the market's probability estimate for that temperature range. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, prices adjust dynamically. The sum of all outcome prices should approximate 1.00, ensuring internal consistency across the full temperature spectrum for Karachi on July 5.

This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, after July 5 concludes in Karachi. The outcome is determined by the verified highest temperature recorded on that day, confirmed once credible public reporting becomes available. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome bracket receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on identifying the single highest temperature reading from reliable meteorological or official sources for that calendar day in Karachi.

Major weather pattern shifts, monsoon intensity changes, or updated seasonal forecasts could significantly move prices in this market. Real-time satellite data, atmospheric pressure systems, and heat wave warnings issued by regional meteorological agencies often trigger trader repositioning. Additionally, historical temperature records for early July in Karachi may be revisited as traders refine their models. Breaking news about climate anomalies or unusual weather systems approaching South Asia could also prompt rapid repricing as participants adjust their expectations for the day's peak temperature.