TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 7, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, risk appetite, and information asymmetries alongside expert analysis. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market prices in broader market sentiment and speculative positioning. Comparing the implied probability from trading odds to published forecasts for Jeddah's July 7 high can reveal whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish than official predictions, though both sources draw from similar underlying climate and seasonal patterns.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once July 7 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Jeddah can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of weather data for that date. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature threshold will receive their winnings, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution timing depends on when official temperature records become publicly available and are validated by the platform.
Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies—such as heat waves or unexpected cooling systems—could significantly move odds in this market. Real-time meteorological alerts, changes to long-range climate models, and historical temperature comparisons for early July in Jeddah will influence trader positioning. Breaking news about regional weather systems, ocean temperatures, or atmospheric pressure changes may trigger rapid repricing. As the date approaches, actual daily forecasts and preliminary temperature readings will become increasingly important drivers of market movement.