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Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 31?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 31?

Volume:
$40,429

26°C or higher

 - Polymarket

26°C or higher - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C or higher

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,074
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts and climate models issue point estimates or confidence intervals based on historical data and atmospheric modeling, prediction markets incorporate broader information—including trader bets, recent weather patterns, and market-driven price discovery. Comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to official forecasts from Turkish meteorological services or international weather agencies can reveal whether traders expect conditions warmer or cooler than baseline predictions. This comparison highlights how decentralized markets sometimes price in tail risks or consensus shifts that traditional forecasts may lag.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Istanbul on May 31 is priced through outcome tokens representing discrete temperature ranges or specific thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell these tokens, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. The market uses an automated market maker or order-book mechanism to determine real-time odds based on supply and demand. As new information emerges—seasonal forecasts, climate anomalies, or updated meteorological data—traders adjust positions, causing prices to shift. The final settlement price is determined once the actual maximum temperature is recorded and verified against the market's predefined resolution criteria.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature in Istanbul on May 31 has been officially recorded. Resolution depends on verified temperature data from a designated meteorological source, typically the Turkish State Meteorological Service or an internationally recognized weather station in Istanbul. The outcome is determined by the maximum temperature reading for that calendar day, measured in degrees Celsius. Once the official figure is confirmed and published, the market settles to the corresponding outcome token, and traders receive payouts proportional to their positions in the winning outcome.

Several factors can shift odds on Polymarket before resolution. Seasonal weather pattern updates, including shifts in Mediterranean high-pressure systems or Atlantic storm tracks, influence trader expectations. Heat waves or anomalous warming trends across southern Europe may increase bullish temperature bets. Conversely, forecasts of cooler air masses or increased cloud cover can lower odds for extreme heat. Real-time meteorological alerts, updated long-range forecasts from major weather agencies, and historical comparisons to prior May 31 temperatures in Istanbul all serve as price catalysts. Traders continuously reassess probabilities as May 31 approaches and new atmospheric data becomes available.