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Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 29?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 29?

Volume:
$52,059

29°C

 - Polymarket

29°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

29°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,568
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,709
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,861
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Istanbul temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature forecast in Istanbul on June 29. The interface displays current trader sentiment through live odds, 24-hour volume activity, and a price chart showing how market expectations have shifted over time. This market reflects collective predictions from traders positioning on specific temperature thresholds, allowing you to monitor both consensus and volatility as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, model updates, and shifting atmospheric conditions into their positions. While meteorologists publish deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather models, this market aggregates distributed trader knowledge and financial incentives to hedge or speculate. Comparing the implied probability here to published forecasts from national weather services can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to official predictions.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism, where buying or selling shares moves the odds in real time. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—temperature ranges or specific thresholds—has its own share price between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. As new information emerges or traders adjust their views, the price adjusts continuously, ensuring the market remains responsive to changing conditions and fresh data.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Istanbul on June 29 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual meteorological measurements against the predetermined thresholds or ranges defined in the market. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event, once official data is published and confirmed.

Major weather model updates, seasonal pattern shifts, and atmospheric anomalies—such as heat waves or unexpected cold fronts—can significantly move trader positioning. Real-time satellite imagery, upper-atmosphere pressure systems, and historical temperature records for late June in Istanbul all influence expectations. Additionally, any revisions to long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies or sudden climate events in the Mediterranean region may trigger rapid repricing as traders reassess their exposure to hotter or cooler outcomes.