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Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 27?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 27?

Volume:
$55,325

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,695
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Istanbul temperature market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Istanbul on June 27. Traders here are pricing their beliefs about whether the peak temperature will hit specific thresholds. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and volume of $55,325 in total activity, with $35,630 traded in the last 24 hours. This gives you a live snapshot of how the prediction market is valuing different temperature outcomes as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect real money at stake, which often incorporates information faster than traditional weather forecasts. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, traders in this market are incentivized to price in the latest satellite imagery, seasonal patterns, and local climate factors. Comparing the implied probability from this market to consensus analyst forecasts can reveal where traders see edge—either betting on a warmer or cooler day than the mainstream weather services expect. Both sources offer value, but they operate on different timescales and information sets.

This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, when June 27 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Istanbul that day is known. The outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting of weather data. Traders holding the correct outcome share will receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on an objective, measurable fact—the actual peak temperature—rather than opinion or interpretation.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before Jun 27, 2026. Updated seasonal forecasts or climate pattern shifts—such as a heat wave or cooler air mass moving into the region—would prompt traders to reprice. Major weather model updates, especially from European or Turkish meteorological services, often trigger volume spikes. Geopolitical or economic news affecting regional weather patterns, or even viral social media discussion of Istanbul's climate, can influence trader sentiment. As June 27 approaches, intraday weather updates and real-time atmospheric data will likely drive the most dramatic price moves.