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404,175

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2,685

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Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 11?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 11?

Volume:
$87,483

82° or below

 - Kalshi

82° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

82° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,927
N/A
N/A
$9,328
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,867
N/A
N/A
$7,044
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

85° to 86°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,069
N/A
N/A
$3,306
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

87° to 88°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,214
N/A
N/A
$2,715
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,774
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,296
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

91° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,654
N/A
N/A
$1,647
Settled
No
kalshi

89° to 90°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$864
N/A
N/A
$814
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market references Philadelphia International Airport on June 09, 2026, while Polymarket references Istanbul Airport on June 11, 2026. Kalshi's resolution logic is a tautology (all temperature ranges resolve to Yes). These are incompatible events with different geographic locations, dates, and logically incoherent settlement conditions.Hero tip: Kalshi's market cannot be resolved against Istanbul weather data and contains a logical contradiction in its resolution rules. Only Polymarket's market is viable for trading Istanbul's June 11 temperature. Avoid Kalshi contracts entirely in this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References Philadelphia International Airport (wrong location) for June 09, 2026 (wrong date). All six resolution conditions (83-84°F, 85-86°F, <83°F, 87-88°F, 89-90°F, >90°F) resolve to Yes, creating a logical tautology where the market always resolves Yes regardless of actual temperature. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily).
  • Polymarket: Correctly references Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on June 11, 2026. Offers 11 distinct temperature bins in Celsius (18°C or below, 19°C through 27°C individually, 28°C or higher). Source: NOAA historical data at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM. Precision: whole degrees Celsius. Resolution timing: after first data point of June 12 is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature in Istanbul on June 11 across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays consensus probability estimates, 24-hour volume trends, and outcome-specific pricing to help you compare how different prediction markets are pricing this weather event. By tracking both platforms side by side, you can identify where market participants expect the temperature to settle and spot divergences that may signal arbitrage or information asymmetries.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, while analyst forecasts typically come from meteorological models and seasonal climate data. Markets often incorporate faster-moving information—such as recent weather pattern shifts or atmospheric anomalies—than traditional forecasts. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in risks that meteorologists have not yet emphasized, or conversely, whether official forecasts suggest outcomes the markets are underweighting.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as high-pressure systems moving into the Eastern Mediterranean, unexpected cold fronts, or changes to seasonal monsoon activity—can significantly alter temperature expectations. Atmospheric indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation or heat dome formation over Europe may trigger repricing. Real-time weather model updates, satellite imagery showing cloud cover changes, and official meteorological alerts will all influence trader positioning. As June 11 approaches, short-term forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes and sharpening market odds.