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Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 3?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 3?

Volume:
$74,472

93° or below

 - Kalshi

93° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 2:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

93° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,709
N/A
N/A
$6,206
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

94° to 95°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,482
N/A
N/A
$3,244
Settled
No
kalshi

96° to 97°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,517
N/A
N/A
$3,639
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

102° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
$974
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

98° to 99°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$530
Settled
No
kalshi

100° to 101°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature in Istanbul will be on July 3, 2026. Kalshi's market references Oklahoma City temperatures on July 1, 2026, which is geographically and temporally misaligned. Polymarket offers a coherent set of temperature range buckets (24°C or below through 34°C or higher) for Istanbul on July 3, measured at Istanbul Airport via NOAA.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Oklahoma City on July 1, 2026, while the event group and Polymarket specify Istanbul on July 3, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's logic is internally contradictory: all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market logically incoherent and unresolvable.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is critically flawed and should not be traded. Focus exclusively on Polymarket's Istanbul Airport temperature buckets, which are geographically and temporally aligned with the stated event. Confirm NOAA data is available for Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on July 3, 2026, before the resolution date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on Oklahoma City maximum temperature on July 1, 2026, per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All six temperature ranges (below 94°F, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, above 101°F) resolve to Yes. This is geographically wrong (Oklahoma City, not Istanbul), temporally wrong (July 1, not July 3), and logically incoherent (every outcome resolves Yes).
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport on July 3, 2026, in whole degrees Celsius, using NOAA data from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM. Offers 11 mutually exclusive temperature buckets (24°C or below through 34°C or higher). Resolution occurs after first data point for July 4 is published; revisions considered until that point.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the maximum temperature recorded at Oklahoma City on July 1, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessible via the NWS website for the Oklahoma City office. The official data source is the daily climate report, not preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature data is categorized into six ranges: below 94°F, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, and 102°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting may involve rounding and conversion nuances that differ from final official data, and should use the latest version of the daily climate report for the specified date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than institutional weather forecasts. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, markets incorporate real-time information, trader conviction, and financial incentives to be accurate. This market's odds may diverge from traditional forecasts because traders are betting real capital on the outcome, creating a different signal. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus forecasts and market sentiment align or diverge—often a useful check on whether one view is underpriced or overconfident.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket may also interpret outcome definitions slightly differently or settle at different times, leading to distinct risk profiles. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but they can persist if one platform has deeper liquidity or if traders on each venue hold different views on the weather outcome. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand where conviction is strongest.

Updated weather forecasts and seasonal climate patterns will be primary drivers. Major atmospheric systems, heat waves, or unexpected cold fronts affecting the Eastern Mediterranean could shift trader expectations significantly. News about climate anomalies, volcanic activity, or solar cycles may also influence long-term temperature bets. As July 3 approaches, real-time weather model updates and short-range forecasts will tighten pricing. Early morning conditions on the day itself could trigger last-minute repricing as traders react to live temperature readings and intraday weather developments.