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Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 10?

Volume:
$70,074

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,034
N/A
N/A
$2,944
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

91° to 92°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,340
N/A
N/A
$3,912
Settled
No
kalshi

95° to 96°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,174
N/A
N/A
$3,246
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,581
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

90° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,268
N/A
N/A
$2,207
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,973
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

97° to 98°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,827
N/A
N/A
$1,734
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

99° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,039
N/A
N/A
$934
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

These markets attempt to predict the highest temperature in Istanbul on July 10, 2026. However, Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Oklahoma City temperatures on July 7, 2026, creating a fundamental mismatch with the stated event group title and Polymarket's Istanbul-focused resolution logic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Oklahoma City on July 7, 2026, instead of Istanbul on July 10, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's logic is internally contradictory: all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market logically impossible to resolve. Polymarket correctly targets Istanbul on July 10 with coherent, granular outcome bins.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken and unresolvable in its current form. The resolution source, location, and date are all incorrect, and the logical structure guarantees a Yes resolution regardless of actual temperature. Avoid Kalshi contracts. Trade only on Polymarket, which has correct geography, date, source (NOAA Istanbul Airport), and mutually exclusive outcome bins.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions reference Oklahoma City maximum temperature on Jul 7, 2026 (not Istanbul on Jul 10). Every single temperature range (below 91°F, 91-92°F, 93-94°F, 95-96°F, 97-98°F, above 98°F) resolves to Yes. This creates a logical tautology where the market cannot fail to resolve Yes, rendering it unresolvable and untrustworthy.
  • Polymarket: Correctly targets Istanbul Airport (LTFM) highest temperature on July 10, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius by NOAA. Provides 12 mutually exclusive outcome bins (20°C or below, 21°C, 22°C, ... 29°C, 30°C or higher). Resolution delayed until first data point of July 11 is published; revisions considered until that point.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Oklahoma City on July 7, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport. The temperature is divided into six ranges: 90°F or below, 91-92°F, 93-94°F, 95-96°F, 97-98°F, and 99°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct market outcome. The official data source is accessed through the NWS website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport with the Daily Climate Report option. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final determination uses only the official NWS Climatological Report (Daily), not preliminary reports or third-party weather services.