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Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Volume:
$170,244

92-93°F

 - Polymarket

92-93°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

92-93°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

94° to 95°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,416
N/A
N/A
$4,231
Settled
Yes
kalshi

93° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$58,409
N/A
N/A
$56,682
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

96° to 97°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,679
N/A
N/A
$5,106
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,802
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

98° to 99°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,927
N/A
N/A
$2,538
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

102° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,528
N/A
N/A
$2,080
Settled
No
polymarket

83°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100° to 101°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,396
N/A
N/A
$2,053
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,667
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

102°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature in Houston will be on July 10, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both aim to resolve based on official temperature recordings, but they differ significantly in their date reference, data source, and resolution structure.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where all temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Additionally, Kalshi references July 9, 2026, while Polymarket references July 10, 2026—a one-day date mismatch. Data sources also differ (NWS Climatological Report vs. Wunderground).Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi until the resolution logic is corrected. The market as written cannot differentiate outcomes. For Polymarket, confirm that July 10, 2026 is the intended date and that Wunderground William P. Hobby Airport Station is the authoritative source before placing trades.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References maximum temperature for Jul 9, 2026 (not Jul 10) according to National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Critical flaw: all six conditions (below 94°F, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, above 101°F) resolve to Yes, leaving no No outcome possible.
  • Polymarket: References highest temperature on Jul 10, 2026 from Wunderground William P. Hobby Airport Station. Provides mutually exclusive temperature ranges (83°F or below, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88-89°F, 90-91°F, 92-93°F, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, 102°F or higher) with exactly one outcome resolving to Yes. Resolution locked after first data point for July 11 is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Houston on July 9, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessible via the CLIHOU database at Houston-Hobby, TX. The event is divided into six temperature ranges: 93°F or below, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, and 102°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct outcome. The official data source is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the secondary rules; preliminary NWS reporting and other weather services should not be used as the final determination. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS data may contain rounding and conversion nuances that differ from the final official report.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, model uncertainty, and tail-risk scenarios that meteorologists may weight differently. While the National Weather Service issues deterministic point forecasts, this market reflects probabilistic thinking across a range of outcomes. Traders can profit by identifying gaps between official forecasts and market-implied odds, creating incentive for rapid price discovery. Over time, markets tend to outperform single-model predictions when aggregating dispersed information from many participants.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps on identical events. Kalshi and Polymarket may also use slightly different contract specifications—such as temperature band definitions or rounding conventions—that shift implied probabilities. Arbitrage traders exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals which market is pricing the event more conservatively and where edge opportunities may exist.

Major weather model updates, tropical system developments, and upper-atmosphere pattern shifts can trigger sharp repricing in this market. Heat dome forecasts, jet stream positioning, and moisture availability all influence trader positioning ahead of July 10. Real-time satellite imagery and short-range model consensus updates often spark volatility in the final 48 hours. Large institutional trades or sudden shifts in trader sentiment can also swing odds, especially if new meteorological data contradicts prior consensus.