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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?

Volume:
$225,754

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$40,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,394
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Hong Kong temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature expected in Hong Kong on June 19. The interface displays current trader positioning, 24-hour volume of $14,932, and cumulative trading activity of $14,932. Traders use this data to monitor how market sentiment shifts as the event date approaches, with price history revealing how confidence in different temperature outcomes has evolved over time.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader consensus and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts publish deterministic point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who face direct financial consequences for accuracy. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory or regional weather services can reveal where market participants expect conditions to differ from model predictions.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts buy and sell orders into implied probabilities for each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome contract reflects the collective willingness of participants to bet on that specific temperature range, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new information emerges or trading activity intensifies, prices adjust continuously to balance supply and demand across all available outcomes.

This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on June 19 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official meteorological data, typically reported by the Hong Kong Observatory or equivalent authoritative weather service. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and the final temperature reading is confirmed and published.

Market prices may shift in response to updated seasonal forecasts, tropical weather systems approaching the region, or shifts in atmospheric pressure patterns. Real-time weather alerts, typhoon warnings, or significant changes to long-range climate models could trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies or unusual heat events in nearby regions may influence trader expectations. As June 19 approaches, intraday weather updates and live atmospheric conditions will likely drive the most volatile price movements in the final hours before resolution.