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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

Volume:
$198,700

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$45,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$38,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$37,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$26,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$13,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$12,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$10,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$6,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,756
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Hong Kong temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature forecast in Hong Kong on June 16. The interface displays current trader positioning, 24-hour volume activity, and outcome probabilities as participants buy and sell shares tied to specific temperature ranges. This market aggregates collective forecasting signals from active traders, offering a dynamic view of how market participants are pricing different temperature scenarios for that date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than single-model outputs. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market incorporates trader conviction, recent weather patterns, and emerging climate signals. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to published forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory or international weather services can reveal where traders are pricing in tail risks or consensus blind spots that analysts may underweight.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system, where each temperature range outcome has its own contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the aggregate belief of all participants—higher prices indicate stronger conviction that a particular temperature range will occur. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily prices move, and wider spreads between bid and ask prices suggest greater uncertainty about the final outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on June 16 is verified and finalized. The outcome is confirmed through credible public reporting from meteorological authorities and official weather records. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range at resolution receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process typically completes within days of the event date once data is officially published.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical storm systems, or monsoon activity affecting the region could significantly move odds in this market. Updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure anomalies, and real-time meteorological alerts may trigger sharp repricing as traders adjust positions. Historical temperature records for mid-June and broader climate trends also influence expectations. Breaking news about unusual weather systems or official weather warnings in the days leading up to June 16 typically generate the most volatile trading activity.