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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

Volume:
$220,204

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$45,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,086
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,048
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs about Hong Kong's peak temperature on June 12, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional analyst reports. While weather analysts typically issue forecasts based on historical climate patterns and seasonal models, prediction markets price in live updates and breaking weather systems. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than consensus forecasts, highlighting market-specific risk assessments.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date, establishing which outcome bracket or threshold was actually reached. The specific measurement source and exact timing of resolution follow the market's predefined criteria, ensuring all traders have clarity on how the event will be settled once the day concludes.

Temperature predictions for Hong Kong on June 12 can shift based on updated weather models, tropical storm systems, monsoon patterns, and seasonal atmospheric conditions. Major catalysts include official meteorological authority forecasts, real-time satellite and radar data showing approaching weather systems, and historical temperature anomalies for early June. Additionally, any significant climate events or unusual pressure systems in the region could alter trader expectations. As June 12 approaches, increasingly precise forecasts will likely narrow the range of plausible outcomes and concentrate trading volume.