TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 28, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Helsinki on May 28, 2026 will reach 16°C, with Polymarket currently pricing the 16°C outcome at 100.0%. The alternative outcome—a high of 17°C or above—stands at 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Wunderground's records for Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station. Watch the actual weather conditions as May 28, 2026 approaches to see whether Helsinki experiences the forecasted temperature range.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Helsinki's May 28 high temperature, while meteorological forecasts from weather agencies and climate analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data. Markets often incorporate analyst predictions but add trader sentiment and risk appetite. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in more or less optimism about warmer or cooler conditions than official forecasts suggest, offering insight into market expectations versus expert models.
The market resolves on May 28, 2026, after the highest temperature in Helsinki on May 28 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data from a designated weather station or meteorological authority in Helsinki. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract is settled, and traders holding winning shares receive their payout based on the final odds at which they traded.
Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move odds. Arctic air masses, high-pressure systems, or unexpected warm fronts approaching Scandinavia in late May will influence trader expectations. Real-time weather model updates, historical temperature comparisons for that date, and broader European climate trends will drive repricing. As May 28 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically trigger larger odds adjustments as uncertainty narrows.