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Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 12?

Volume:
$84,585

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,063
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations, while meteorological forecasts from weather agencies and climate analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data. Market prices often incorporate broader information—including seasonal patterns, urban heat effects, and real-time atmospheric conditions—that analysts use. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official forecasts suggest, offering insight into market sentiment versus expert consensus.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 12 is priced through a binary or outcome-based contract structure. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature thresholds, with the price of each outcome reflecting its implied probability. As new information emerges—such as seasonal forecasts or atmospheric patterns—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The current market price directly signals what Polymarket participants believe is the likelihood of each temperature scenario on that date.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 12 has been recorded. The outcome is determined by official temperature data from a designated meteorological source, ensuring an objective, verifiable result. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on which outcome they held. This structure guarantees that resolution depends solely on real-world climate data rather than subjective interpretation.

Several factors could shift market prices before Jun 12, 2026. Seasonal weather pattern updates, tropical storm forecasts, or atmospheric pressure anomalies affecting South China could trigger repricing. Urban heat island data, air quality reports, and regional climate indices may also influence trader expectations. Additionally, historical temperature records for early June in Guangzhou and any El Niño or monsoon signals could prompt position adjustments. Real-time meteorological alerts and model consensus shifts will likely drive the most significant price movements as June 12 approaches.