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Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 3?

Volume:
$126,884

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,934
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,692
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders rather than a single analyst's view, often incorporating real-time data and shifting expectations. While meteorologists and weather services issue deterministic forecasts for Guangzhou's July 3 conditions, this market aggregates probabilistic bets from many participants with varying confidence levels and information access. The market price can diverge from traditional forecasts when traders anticipate factors analysts may underweight, such as unusual atmospheric patterns or model uncertainty, making the odds a complementary signal to conventional weather guidance.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell pressure. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific temperature outcome, and the price of a share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market. As traders deposit capital and place orders, the pricing mechanism continuously rebalances, ensuring that the sum of all outcome probabilities equals 100 percent and that prices remain responsive to new information or shifting sentiment about Guangzhou's weather on the target date.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Guangzhou on July 3 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature reading against the contract thresholds traders have wagered on. Resolution typically occurs within hours or days after the event, once official meteorological data is published and confirmed, allowing winning positions to be settled and funds distributed to correct forecasters.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or tropical system developments could significantly alter odds in this market. Real-time atmospheric data, satellite imagery, and model consensus changes in the days leading up to July 3 will likely drive trading activity and price adjustments. Additionally, historical temperature records for Guangzhou in early July and any unusual climate anomalies reported by meteorological agencies may prompt traders to reassess their positions, causing sharp moves as new information becomes available and resolution approaches.