Highest temperature in Denver on May 29, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this weather event is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the market's probability estimate for that outcome. As new weather data, seasonal forecasts, and climate models emerge, prices adjust to reflect updated expectations. The most actively traded outcomes typically command the tightest bid-ask spreads, while less liquid ranges may show wider pricing gaps.

The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after May 29, 2026 concludes and the actual high temperature for Denver is recorded. Resolution is determined by the official temperature data reported for that date. The outcome is objective and verifiable, based on meteorological records from the National Weather Service or equivalent official weather station data for the Denver area. Once the final temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract settles at 100 cents, and all other outcomes settle at zero.

Several factors could shift market odds for Denver's May 29 high temperature. Updated long-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate models will influence trader expectations as the date approaches. Major atmospheric patterns, such as high-pressure systems or cold fronts, become clearer in the weeks leading up to late May. Historical May temperature trends and anomalies in the broader region can also drive repricing. Additionally, any significant climate or weather events in the preceding weeks may alter baseline expectations for late-spring Denver conditions.