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Highest temperature in Denver on July 3?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Denver on July 3?

Volume:
$96,144

92-93°F

 - Polymarket

92-93°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

92-93°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

89° to 90°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,218
N/A
N/A
$4,420
Settled
Yes
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

88° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,087
N/A
N/A
$6,672
Settled
No
kalshi

91° to 92°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,042
N/A
N/A
$4,841
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,906
N/A
N/A
$2,353
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

102°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

83°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

97° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,730
N/A
N/A
$1,584
Settled
No
kalshi

95° to 96°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,378
N/A
N/A
$1,298
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the highest temperature recorded in Denver, Colorado on July 3, 2026. Kalshi references July 2, 2026 (apparent date error), while Polymarket correctly specifies July 3, 2026. Both platforms use official weather service data but differ in measurement station, source authority, and temperature range bucketing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi specifies July 02, 2026 while Polymarket specifies July 3, 2026—a one-day date mismatch that makes simultaneous resolution impossible. Additionally, Kalshi uses National Weather Service Climatological Report while Polymarket uses Buckley Space Force Base Station via Wunderground, introducing station-level measurement divergence.Hero tip: This is a critical divergence. Before trading or settling, confirm with Kalshi whether the July 02 date is a typographical error or intentional. If intentional, these markets resolve on different days and should not be arbitraged. Polymarket's Buckley station may also report different temperatures than downtown Denver NWS station due to geographic and elevation differences. Request clarification from both platforms before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on highest temperature in Denver, CO on July 02, 2026 per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All temperature ranges (89-90, 91-92, 93-94, 95-96, >96, <89) resolve to Yes. Binary structure with no explicit No condition. Quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Denver, CO for July 02, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 91-92°, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on highest temperature at Buckley Space Force Base Station on July 3, 2026 via Wunderground historical data. Provides 11 granular temperature buckets (83 or below, 84-85, 86-87, 88-89, 90-91, 92-93, 94-95, 96-97, 98-99, 100-101, 102 or higher) with whole-degree precision. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded in Denver, CO on July 02, 2026, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official NWS report serves as the authoritative source; preliminary data from other weather services may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations. Traders should rely on the final NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for accurate resolution, as preliminary NWS reporting may contain nuances in conversion and rounding that affect the final determination.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here distill real-time trader conviction into live odds, often reflecting a crowd-sourced consensus that incorporates recent meteorological data, seasonal patterns, and historical precedent. Unlike static analyst forecasts issued days or weeks ahead, this market reprices continuously as new weather models and observations emerge. Traders with domain expertise or access to real-time forecasts can arbitrage gaps between market odds and professional predictions, causing prices to converge toward consensus. The result is a dynamic, self-correcting probability estimate that typically outperforms single-point forecasts over time, especially as the event date approaches.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct contract structures, fee schedules, and liquidity profiles. Kalshi's binary format (e.g., will the high be below 89°?) appeals to traders seeking simple yes-or-no exposure, while Polymarket's range-based contracts (e.g., 83°F or below) attract those seeking granular temperature bands. Participant demographics, geographic distribution, and risk appetite also vary between platforms. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when one platform's odds drift from the other, but transaction costs and withdrawal friction can prevent instant convergence. These structural differences mean identical weather events can trade at materially different odds across venues.

Updated weather models and seasonal forecasts are the primary drivers of price movement. A shift in the jet stream, development of high-pressure systems, or changes to atmospheric moisture can materially alter the probability of extreme heat. Real-time meteorological alerts, heat advisories, or record-breaking temperatures in nearby regions may prompt traders to reassess Denver's outlook. Historical precedent—such as prior July 3 records or multi-day heat waves—can also influence positioning. As the event date approaches, intraday temperature trends and overnight lows feed trader sentiment, with each new forecast cycle potentially triggering repricing across both platforms.