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Highest temperature in Dallas on July 3?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Dallas on July 3?

Volume:
$176,565

95° or below

 - Kalshi

95° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 2:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

95° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,418
N/A
N/A
$12,514
Settled
Yes
polymarket

96-97°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

96° to 97°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,670
N/A
N/A
$15,495
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

91°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,729
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

104-105°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,491
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100° to 101°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,926
N/A
N/A
$6,650
Settled
No
kalshi

98° to 99°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,766
N/A
N/A
$5,684
Settled
No
polymarket

102-103°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,452
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92-93°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

110°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

106-107°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

108-109°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

104° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,061
N/A
N/A
$1,015
Settled
No
kalshi

102° to 103°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$983
N/A
N/A
$971
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Dallas on July 3, 2026. Kalshi frames it as a yes/no resolution tied to July 2 data, while Polymarket structures it as a temperature range bucket market using July 3 data from Weather Underground. The core question is identical, but the platforms diverge on the reference date and data source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references July 2, 2026 temperature data while Polymarket references July 3, 2026. This is a fundamental date mismatch that makes the two markets resolve to different underlying events. Additionally, Kalshi's data source (NWS Climatological Report) and Polymarket's source (Weather Underground) may produce different recorded values for the same day.Hero tip: This divergence is likely unintentional—Kalshi's July 2 reference appears to be a market creation error given the event group title specifies July 3. Contact Kalshi support immediately to clarify. Do not assume arbitrage opportunity; treat as two separate markets until official clarification. Polymarket's market structure (temperature buckets) is more standard for this event type. Weather Underground data may lag or differ from official NWS records, creating settlement risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary yes/no resolution tied to July 2, 2026 maximum temperature at Dallas. All six specified temperature ranges (< 96°F through > 103°F) resolve to YES. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). This structure is unusual—it resolves YES for almost all plausible outcomes, making it functionally a 'will there be a temperature reading' market rather than a meaningful prediction.
  • Polymarket: Categorical bucket market resolving to the single temperature range containing July 3, 2026 maximum at Dallas Love Field Station. Thirteen mutually exclusive ranges from 91°F or below through 110°F or higher. Source: Weather Underground historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Only one bucket resolves YES; all others resolve NO.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas on July 2, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for Dallas/Fort Worth, TX. The temperature is divided into six ranges: 95°F or below, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, 102-103°F, and 104°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct market outcome. The official data source is accessed through the NWS website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Dallas/Fort Worth, TX with the Daily Climate Report option. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official report should be used for resolution rather than preliminary estimates or alternative weather sources.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they price in tail risks, trader sentiment, and real-time data updates that meteorologists may not yet have incorporated. While the National Weather Service publishes point estimates and confidence intervals, market odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will actually occur, weighted by their financial commitment. Markets can move faster than official forecasts when new satellite data or atmospheric models emerge. Comparing the two—market consensus versus analyst guidance—helps you understand whether traders are pricing in more extreme heat or more moderate conditions than the official outlook suggests.

Major weather model updates—particularly from the GFS, European, or NAM models—often trigger sharp repricing as traders recalibrate their heat expectations. Heat domes, upper-level ridges, or sudden shifts in atmospheric patterns can push odds toward higher or lower temperature bins. Real-time conditions in the days leading up to July 3, including soil moisture and cloud cover, will also influence late-stage trading. Additionally, any unusual urban heat island effects or infrastructure changes in Dallas could shift trader conviction. Social media discussions, news coverage of extreme weather elsewhere, and even betting activity on neighboring markets (like Houston or San Antonio temperatures) can create spillover momentum.