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Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 26?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 26?

Volume:
$50,271

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 28, 2026

Closed: May 26, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$16,032
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$10,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$3,628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$2,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,970
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Chongqing will reach specific thresholds on May 26, 2026. On Polymarket, the outcome that the high will be 24°C carries a 10.0% probability, while the 22°C outcome stands at 10.0%. Resolution will be determined by historical weather data from Wunderground, using measurements from Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station. Watch for late-May weather patterns and seasonal temperature trends as May 26, 2026 approaches to gauge the likelihood of these temperature benchmarks being met.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders pricing in historical climate patterns, seasonal trends, and current weather models for Chongqing in late May. Analyst forecasts from meteorological services typically rely on deterministic models and official seasonal outlooks. Markets often incorporate broader uncertainty and tail-risk scenarios that traditional forecasts may underweight. Comparing Polymarket odds to official weather agency predictions can reveal whether traders are pricing in higher or lower temperature extremes than institutional forecasters expect for this specific date.

The market resolves on May 26, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official highest temperature recorded in Chongqing on May 26, measured according to standard meteorological protocols. The specific outcome depends on which temperature range or threshold the actual recorded high falls into, as defined by the market's outcome categories. Official weather station data from Chongqing serves as the authoritative source for settlement.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to monsoon timing or intensity, could significantly move odds. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies may alter trader expectations about late-May temperatures in Chongqing. Real-time weather model runs issued in the days leading up to May 26 will likely trigger sharp repricing. Urban heat island effects, air quality events, or unusual atmospheric conditions could also influence the final temperature. As the date approaches, short-term forecasts become more reliable, typically causing odds to converge toward a narrower range and reducing uncertainty.