TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 3?
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Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 3?

Volume:
$74,033

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 3, 2026

Closed: Jun 3, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,859
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus, which often incorporates meteorological forecasts and historical climate data. Analyst forecasts from weather services and climate models typically focus on expected conditions and confidence intervals, while prediction markets compress that information into a single probability. The market odds may diverge from analyst consensus if traders weight recent weather patterns, seasonal anomalies, or longer-term climate trends differently. Comparing the two can reveal whether the market is pricing in tail risks or unusual conditions that traditional forecasters emphasize less.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the highest temperature in Chongqing on June 3 is recorded and finalized. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from meteorological authorities or designated weather stations in Chongqing. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on how the contract is structured—for example, whether the high temperature reaches a specific threshold or falls within a defined range. Once the actual temperature is confirmed, the market settles automatically and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Several factors can shift odds for Chongqing's June 3 high temperature. Major weather systems—monsoons, heat waves, or cold fronts—approaching the region in late May or early June will trigger significant repricing as meteorological forecasts update. Seasonal climate patterns, such as early or delayed onset of summer heat, influence trader expectations. Real-time weather model updates and official forecasts from China's meteorological authority will be closely watched. Historical temperature anomalies for early June in Chongqing may also prompt adjustments if traders reassess baseline expectations. As June 3 approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes.