Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 31?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Chengdu on May 31 is priced as a set of outcome shares, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell these shares, and the price of each reflects the market's implied probability. As new weather forecasts, seasonal patterns, and real-time atmospheric data emerge, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The outcome with the highest share price represents the market's leading expectation for that day's peak temperature in Chengdu.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature in Chengdu on May 31 has been recorded and verified. The specific outcome is determined by official temperature data from a designated meteorological source, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Once the actual peak temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome share is paid out in full, while all other shares expire worthless. This mechanism ensures that traders' profits and losses are tied directly to real-world weather observations.

Several factors can shift market odds before resolution. Updated seasonal weather forecasts, atmospheric pressure patterns, and monsoon activity in the region will influence trader expectations. Major weather events—such as tropical systems, cold fronts, or heat waves—can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records and anomalies for late May in Chengdu provide context that traders monitor. As May 31 approaches, real-time meteorological updates and short-term forecasts become increasingly important, often causing late volatility as the market converges toward the actual outcome.