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Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 6?

Volume:
$97,447

36°C

 - Polymarket

36°C - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 6, 2026

Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

36°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,581
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader sentiment and often incorporate the latest meteorological data faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather agencies and climate analysts publish seasonal and short-term temperature predictions for Chengdu, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. The market odds may diverge from analyst consensus if traders believe official forecasts underestimate or overestimate the likelihood of extreme heat. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in risks that institutional forecasters may have overlooked.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after the highest temperature in Chengdu on June 6, 2026 has been recorded and finalized. Resolution is determined by the official temperature reading from the designated meteorological authority for Chengdu on that date. The outcome contract corresponding to the actual recorded high temperature will be marked correct, and all shares in that outcome will be worth their full value. Traders holding shares in non-winning outcomes receive no payout. The specific measurement methodology and official source used for settlement are established at market creation.

Several factors can shift odds for Chengdu's June 6 high temperature. Major weather pattern changes, such as the arrival of monsoon systems or heat domes, will move prices significantly. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric data releases influence trader positioning. Historical temperature records for early June in Chengdu provide a baseline; anomalies in late May conditions may signal unusual heat or cooling. El Niño or La Niña phase transitions can affect regional climate patterns. As June approaches, daily weather model updates and short-range forecasts become increasingly precise, causing sharper price movements. Extreme weather events elsewhere in Asia may also alter regional circulation patterns.