Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 16?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating weather models, historical data, and expert analysis faster than traditional forecasts update. While meteorologists and climate analysts publish seasonal or medium-range temperature predictions through official channels, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from participants with direct financial incentive to be accurate. The odds here tend to converge toward consensus when new weather data emerges, offering a dynamic alternative to static analyst reports for gauging the probability of Chengdu hitting 35°C on June 16.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes, with the market price reflecting the collective probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds are determined by supply and demand: as more traders believe the highest temperature will reach 35°C, the yes-share price rises, and vice versa. Your potential payout depends on the final price at which you trade, making it possible to enter or exit at different confidence levels throughout the countdown to June 16.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once June 16 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu for that day is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verifying the actual peak temperature against credible public weather data sources. Traders holding yes-shares are paid out if the temperature reaches or exceeds 35°C; those holding no-shares are paid if it falls below that threshold. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market close as official temperature records become available.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and real-time meteorological updates will drive price swings in this market. Tropical systems, monsoon activity, or heat waves affecting the region could trigger sharp moves as traders reassess the probability of extreme heat. Additionally, historical temperature records for mid-June in Chengdu and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported by weather agencies will influence trader positioning. As the event date draws closer, each new forecast update or weather alert has the potential to shift odds significantly.