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Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 9?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 9?

Volume:
$98,183

39°C

 - Polymarket

39°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

39°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Chengdu temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for predictions on the highest temperature in Chengdu on July 9. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume as participants buy and sell shares based on their forecasts. This dashboard lets you monitor how the market's collective expectation shifts as new weather data and forecasts emerge, giving you a live view of where traders believe temperatures will peak on that specific date.

Prediction market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders with real financial stakes, whereas traditional weather analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and expert judgment. This market prices in both historical climate patterns for Chengdu in July and current atmospheric conditions. Traders often incorporate analyst predictions into their bets, but the market odds can diverge when new data emerges or when traders collectively assess risk differently than official forecasters. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd's expectation aligns with or diverges from professional meteorological consensus.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker model where share prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. If more traders believe the highest temperature will reach 35°C, the price of that outcome rises; if fewer traders back it, the price falls. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the odds reflect the latest information and sentiment among active participants.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once July 9 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu for that day is verified. The outcome is confirmed through credible public reporting of weather data. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature range will receive payouts proportional to their positions, while incorrect predictions result in losses. The resolution process is automatic once the event is observable and reported by reliable sources.

Weather forecasts updated by meteorological agencies can shift market odds significantly as they refine predictions for early July conditions in Chengdu. Seasonal climate patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and any unusual weather phenomena reported in the region may prompt traders to adjust positions. Historical temperature records for similar dates can also influence sentiment. As July 9 approaches, real-time weather observations and short-term forecasts typically drive the most dramatic price movements, with traders locking in positions based on the latest data.