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Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 6?

Volume:
$83,771

37°C

 - Polymarket

37°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

37°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,984
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,954
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Chengdu July temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for predictions about the highest temperature in Chengdu on July 6. This market displays the current probability estimate alongside historical price movements, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as new weather data and forecasts emerge. The dashboard provides transparency into how the prediction market community is pricing this specific weather outcome, reflecting collective expectations about summer heat in the region.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and diverse trader perspectives. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, market participants price in uncertainty, media attention, and their own interpretations of forecast reliability. This market's odds reflect what traders are willing to bet on regarding peak July temperatures in Chengdu, which may align with or deviate from official forecasts depending on how confident the market is in those predictions.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome—whether the highest temperature will reach 39°C—reflects the aggregated trading activity and risk appetite of participants. As traders buy or sell shares representing different temperature outcomes, the probability shifts dynamically, creating a continuous price discovery mechanism that balances supply and demand in real time.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu on July 6 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual meteorological data against the temperature thresholds embedded in each market option. Traders' positions settle based on which outcome occurred, with payouts distributed to those who correctly predicted the day's peak temperature.

Weather model updates and seasonal forecasts are primary drivers of market movement, as improved predictions about atmospheric conditions shift trader expectations. Major weather systems, heat waves, or unusual atmospheric patterns reported in the media can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for Chengdu in early July and real-time weather alerts closer to the event date will influence how traders adjust their positions, making this market sensitive to both long-range forecasts and near-term meteorological developments.