TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 4?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 4?

Volume:
$77,045

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,809
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,424
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Chengdu July 4 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the highest temperature in Chengdu will reach 38°C or higher on that date. The interface displays current market prices, 24-hour volume of $59,684, and historical price movements so traders can monitor how sentiment shifts as the event approaches. This dashboard lets you see at a glance whether the market is pricing in an extreme heat event, helping you compare live odds against your own weather expectations for the region.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide and often incorporate meteorological data, historical patterns, and seasonal trends faster than traditional analyst consensus. While weather forecasters publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on numerical models, this market aggregates dispersed trader knowledge into a single probability. Comparing the two reveals whether professional meteorologists and market participants align on the likelihood of extreme heat in Chengdu, or whether one group is pricing in risks the other underweights.

This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once July 4 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu for that day is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verifying the actual peak temperature against credible public weather reporting, establishing whether it met or exceeded the 38°C threshold. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once the result is official and the market settles.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can all shift odds significantly. If meteorological models begin indicating a stronger heat dome or monsoon disruption over central China, bullish traders may bid up the "yes" shares. Conversely, cooler-than-expected conditions in the weeks leading up to July 4, or a shift toward wetter patterns, could drive prices lower. Historical temperature records for the date and broader climate anomalies also influence trader conviction.