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Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 3?

Volume:
$121,360

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Chengdu July temperature market displays real-time odds on what the highest temperature in Chengdu will reach on July 3. Traders can monitor price movements and historical trends as participants buy and sell shares tied to specific temperature outcomes. The interface shows current probabilities for each temperature threshold, allowing you to track how market sentiment evolves. Volume and liquidity metrics help you gauge trading activity and market depth, giving insight into how confident participants are about different temperature scenarios for that date.

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and historical data. This market aggregates dispersed knowledge from many participants, often capturing nuances that single-source forecasts miss. Analyst predictions tend to update on fixed schedules, while market prices adjust continuously as new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where expert opinion and crowd wisdom diverge, highlighting uncertainty around the highest temperature Chengdu will experience on July 3.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once July 3 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu for that day is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to establish the final temperature reading. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout based on the verified result. Until that point, prices will fluctuate as new weather forecasts, seasonal patterns, and real-time conditions influence participant expectations.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal monsoon activity, and updated meteorological forecasts can significantly move prices in this market. Heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions reported in regional forecasts will likely trigger sharp repricing. Real-time weather alerts and official forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies carry particular weight. As July 3 approaches, intraday temperature readings and live weather updates will drive final adjustments. Long-range climate anomalies or El Niño effects could also influence trader sentiment weeks in advance.