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Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 2?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 2?

Volume:
$415,924

87° to 88°

 - Kalshi

87° to 88° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

87° to 88°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93,808
N/A
N/A
$40,317
Settled
Yes
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$35,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

89° to 90°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85,545
N/A
N/A
$50,140
Settled
No
kalshi

91° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,725
N/A
N/A
$26,868
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,714
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

85° to 86°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,261
N/A
N/A
$10,990
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,152
N/A
N/A
$13,118
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

82° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,018
N/A
N/A
$3,522
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks about the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu on July 2, 2026. Polymarket offers granular temperature-range markets (25°C or below through 35°C or higher), while Kalshi's data refers to Central Park, New York on June 30, 2026—a completely different location and date. The Kalshi markets are misaligned with the stated event group.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on Central Park, New York (June 30, 2026) while Polymarket markets resolve on Chengdu, China (July 2, 2026). These are entirely different geographic locations and dates, making the markets logically incompatible and unresolvable as a unified group.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate, non-overlapping event groups. Polymarket's Chengdu July 2 markets are internally consistent and resolvable via Wunderground. Kalshi's Central Park June 30 markets form a separate, unrelated group. Do not assume any correlation or arbitrage opportunity between them.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, July 2, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius via Wunderground historical data. Offers 13 granular temperature-range outcomes (25°C or below through 35°C or higher). Key Quote: 'the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul 26.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on highest temperature in Central Park, New York, June 30, 2026, via National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Offers 6 temperature-range outcomes (less than 83°F through greater than 90°F). Key Quote: 'highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for June 30, 2026.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on June 30, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six ranges: 82°F or below, 83–84°F, 85–86°F, 87–88°F, 89–90°F, and 91°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The official and final temperature value comes exclusively from the NWS Climatological Report (Daily); preliminary NWS data, AccuWeather, Google Weather, and other sources are not authoritative. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline values.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from traders with skin in the game, often producing forecasts that rival or outperform traditional meteorological models over short horizons. Analysts publish point estimates and confidence intervals; this market distills collective trader conviction into live odds. The gap between market probability and official weather bureau forecasts can signal either underpricing of tail risks or overconfidence in consensus. Comparing the two helps you spot where professional forecasters and decentralized traders disagree most sharply.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, operates distinct contract designs, and enforces separate liquidity pools. Kalshi's binary structure may appeal to retail hedgers seeking simplicity, while Polymarket's range contracts invite granular temperature bets. Gas fees, settlement latency, and regulatory posture also shape participation. Price gaps between venues create arbitrage opportunities for traders willing to hedge across both platforms, though transaction costs often prevent perfect convergence.

Major weather pattern shifts—monsoon onset, heat domes, or tropical systems—can dramatically reprrice temperature expectations for early July in Chengdu. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger trader repositioning. Real-time atmospheric data, satellite imagery, and model consensus updates in the days leading up to July 2 will compress uncertainty and tighten odds. Political or environmental policy announcements affecting regional climate patterns could also influence longer-dated positioning if they shift baseline expectations.