TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Busan on May 31?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Busan on May 31?

Volume:
$37,453

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,082
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader beliefs about Busan's peak temperature on May 31, often incorporating meteorological forecasts, historical climate data, and seasonal trends. Traditional weather analysts and climate models provide baseline expectations that traders use to inform their positions. Markets may diverge from official forecasts when traders anticipate unusual atmospheric conditions, El Niño patterns, or other climate signals. Comparing Polymarket odds to published meteorological consensus helps identify whether the market is pricing in tail risks or consensus outcomes.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Busan on May 31 is priced through outcome shares that represent specific temperature ranges or thresholds. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to their belief about whether the actual high will fall into each bracket. The price of each outcome reflects its implied probability; higher-priced shares indicate stronger market confidence. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how easily you can enter or exit positions, and prices adjust dynamically as new information and trades arrive.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature in Busan on May 31 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data from recognized meteorological sources for Busan on that date. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the market settles according to which outcome bracket or threshold it falls into. Traders should monitor the resolution criteria and data source specifications to understand how their positions will be finalized.

Major weather systems, monsoon patterns, and seasonal atmospheric shifts could significantly influence Busan's temperature on May 31. Updates to long-range weather forecasts, tropical cyclone activity, and upper-atmosphere pressure anomalies often trigger market repricing. Climate indices such as sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific and jet stream positioning may shift trader expectations. Real-time meteorological alerts, model consensus changes, and historical temperature comparisons for late May in Busan will likely drive trading activity as the event date approaches.