TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Busan on May 29, 2026 will fall within specific ranges. On Polymarket, the outcome that the high will reach 25°C carries 31.0% probability, while a high of 27°C holds 30.5% probability. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground, using readings from Gimhae International Airport Station. Watch for seasonal weather patterns and any tropical systems that may develop as May 29 approaches, as these factors will be critical in determining the actual high temperature recorded that day.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus on Busan's May 29 high temperature, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. The current market pricing suggests traders are weighing seasonal norms, atmospheric conditions, and climate patterns for late May in Busan. Comparing market odds to official meteorological agency forecasts can reveal whether traders expect conditions above or below typical seasonal expectations for that date.
The Highest temperature in Busan on May 29 market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual recorded maximum temperature in Busan on May 29, which will be verified against official meteorological data. The outcome that matches the verified high temperature will be deemed correct, and traders holding winning shares receive their payout. Markets typically use data from recognized weather stations or national meteorological agencies to ensure accuracy and prevent disputes. Traders should monitor official sources as the date approaches to understand which data source will be used for final settlement.
Several factors could shift odds for Busan's May 29 high temperature. Seasonal weather pattern updates from meteorological agencies may indicate stronger or weaker heat systems approaching the region. Changes in ocean temperatures and monsoon forecasts directly influence late-May conditions in Busan. Major atmospheric events, such as tropical systems or high-pressure ridges, can dramatically alter expectations weeks in advance. As May approaches, medium-range weather models become more reliable, typically causing market repricing. Real-time atmospheric data releases, including pressure systems and humidity patterns, will likely drive trading activity closer to the resolution date, reflecting increasingly confident forecasts.