Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on June 4?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a set of outcome contracts representing specific temperature ranges or thresholds for June 4 in Buenos Aires. Each contract trades independently, with prices reflecting the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome; more heavily traded temperature bands typically show tighter bid-ask spreads. Prices update continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market rates throughout the trading window until Jun 4, 2026.

The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, after the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on June 4 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official meteorological data from Argentina's weather authorities, ensuring an objective, verifiable outcome. Once the actual maximum temperature is confirmed and published, the corresponding outcome contract is settled at full value while all other contracts expire worthless. This timing allows traders to hold positions through the entire event window and settle based on real-world observation.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 4. Updated seasonal weather forecasts from meteorological agencies may indicate warming or cooling trends across Argentina. Major atmospheric patterns such as cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or unusual wind patterns could alter expectations. Historical temperature records and climate anomalies for early June in Buenos Aires provide context for extreme outcomes. Additionally, real-time weather data released in the days leading up to June 4 will likely trigger repricing as traders refine their probability estimates based on the most current atmospheric conditions.